Life Cycle Deficit and Intergenerational Transfers: Comparative Analysis of Old-EU, Eastern European and Post-Soviet Countries

Talk by Vladimir Kozlov (IOS) as part of the Research Seminar Series of the IOS Economics Department.

This is a presentation of the age profiles for the life cycle deficit (based on the results for incomes and consumption age distribution), and the profiles of the flows to cover this deficit. The methodology for the distribution is based on the National transfer accounts project Manual. The authors calculations are made for Russia comparing 2013, 2016 and 2019. As between the years 2013 and 2016 the economic decline and the drop in real incomes of the population were observed in Russia, but the redistribution mechanism in the Russian Federation was active, e.g. for the most vulnerable categories of the population some special social support programs were introduced. As a result, we observed the evidence of quite a recent trend of growing consumption at the older ages in 2016 and 2019 in comparison of the 2013 (the whole trend has started since late 2000-s). The Eastern European countries, for which the profiles from the Agenta Project 2010 were taken, are in the transition position between ‘Old-Europe’ and Russia.

The post-Soviet countries in our sample demonstrate either close to Russia profile (Belarus), or remittances-oriented society profiles (Moldova, Kyrgyzstan). Within the presentation the brief explanation of the differences will be provided as well as the projections of the profiles and transfer changes.

The talk is open to external participants in person or online.