Treatment Effect Heterogeneity: Comparing the Eurasian Customs Union to the EU

Talk by Richard Frensch (IOS) as part of the Research Seminar Series of the IOS Economics Department.

There is a rich literature on EU integration and a comparatively sparse one on Post-Soviet trade agreements. Their results indicate that countries gain significantly from EU integration, but little if anything from trade integration within the Post-Soviet space. Aside from volume, these literatures also differ significantly in terms of methods employed. We introduce domestic trade data, globalization effects, and staggered treatment to Post-Soviet trade agreement analysis. Our preliminary results suggest more trade effect heterogeneity in terms of economic and statistical significance across accessions to the Eurasian Customs Union than across EU accession rounds.