Growing Up in Crises and the Formation of Attitudes Towards the European Union

Talk by Despina Gavresi (Nicolaus Copernicus University) as part of the Research Seminar Series of the IOS Economics Department.

In an era marked by repeated crises and the growing traction of populist movements, understanding the deep-rooted factors shaping EU cohesion has become increasingly urgent. This paper investigates how lifetime exposure to socio-economic crises influences individual attitudes toward the European Union (EU). We show that individuals with greater lifetime exposure to these crises are more likely to distrust EU institutions, oppose further integration, vote for Eurosceptic parties, and support exiting the EU. These patterns are especially pronounced for asymmetric shocks, which disproportionately affect specific regions or countries, in contrast to symmetric shocks, which appear to foster a sense of shared fate and solidarity. A series of robustness tests - including placebo checks, heterogeneity analyses, diverse shock types and designs exploiting EU institutional structure - confirms the persistent impact of economic trauma on EU attitudes, underscoring the need to address historical recessions to safeguard cohesion and democratic legitimacy in the context of the EU.