Pollution and Democratic Erosion: Evidence from 29 Transition Countries

Talk by Michael Windsor (Curtin University) as part of the Research Seminar Series of the IOS Economics Department.

Air pollution is estimated to cause 9 million deaths annually, yet its consequences for political outcomes remain poorly understood. We provide the first large-scale causal evidence that fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure shapes both corruption perceptions and political participation in a large sample of countries. Combining three waves of the Life in Transition Survey (2010-2023) across 29 countries with high-resolution satellite-derived pollution and meteorological data, and instrumenting for PM2.5 exposure using temperature inversions, we find that each additional µg/m3 raises perceived petty corruption by 1.8% on average - rising to 6.4% within EU transition economies - and increases the likelihood of perceiving government officials as corrupt by 6-8 percentage points. Exposure also reshapes participation. In Central and Eastern European countries, each additional µg/m3 reduces the probability of voting by 8-10 percentage points while simultaneously increasing interest in petition signing by 9 percentage points. These findings are consistent with pollution eroding institutional trust and driving substitution from formal to non-institutional political engagement.