Transition to a Green Economy

Talk by Zsoka Koczan (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) as part of the Research Seminar Series of the IOS Economics Department.

The seminar will draw on analysis presented in the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s 2023-24 Transition Report as well as the new, fourth wave of the Life in Transition Survey. It will examine the scramble for raw materials critical for the roll-out of clean technologies, attitudes to and willingness to pay for climate change mitigation, the impact of greening on labour markets, and the environmental impact of housing. Finally, it will also turn to changes in inequality of opportunity and intergenerational mobility, which may shape support for various policies. A successful transition to a green economy – which will require a rapid roll-out of clean technologies – will require public support as well as depend on the availability of various critical raw materials. Currently, China dominates the production and processing of many of these materials, so manufacturers around the world are trying to diversify their supplier bases. This diversification will take time and require significant investment, but it may benefit several emerging markets, for example, when it comes to supplying materials for the solar power and fuel cell sectors. The green transition also depends on public support, however, while most people in emerging markets are concerned about the impact of climate change, only a minority would be willing to pay to mitigate its effects. In addition, despite increasing demand for green skills, labour market adaptation remains sluggish across many emerging markets, partly reflecting the slow pace of green innovation.