Populism and Green Transition in the European Union

Talk by Krisztián Horváth (Semmelweis University Budapest / IOS) as part of the Research Seminar Series of the IOS Economics Department.

Contemporary democracies face numerous challenges, two of which are poised to become left-right wing divide: populism and climate change. In the last decade, far-right parties have successfully gained electoral support by politicizing the issue of climate change. Climate change fits very well into the populist narrative for numerous reasons: (i) anti-globalist and elitist stance, (ii) human psychology bias/trait of avoiding present costs over future benefits (hyperbolic discounting), and (iii) the harsh economic realities of green transition, as it endangers many traditional industries and jobs, especially in rural areas. To avoid climate collapse, it is crucial to understand voters' motivations and incentives for broader green transition support. Although existing literature studies the correlation between green transition and political populism, there are many missing pieces: measurable policy effects of populists, left-wing radicalism, and climate populism outside the US and Western Europe. The current paper will build on a hybrid approach of combining qualitative expert interviews with EU climate policy stakeholders and identifying empirical factors that influence voters the most, akin to a quantitative analysis of the role of environmental policy stringency in voting for populist parties.