Climate Change and Migration in Central Asia: Evidence from the Kyrgyz Republic

Talk by Kamalbek Karymshakov (Kyrgyz-Turkish Manas University) as part of the Research Seminar Series of the IOS Economics Department.

Labor migration has been a defining feature of Central Asia since the early 1990s, shaping economies, households, and societies across the region. At the same time, Central Asia faces growing challenges from climate change, with rising populations intensifying pressure on natural resources and increasing the potential for environmentally driven migration. According to the World Bank’s Groundswell report, under a pessimistic scenario, up to 2.4 million people in the region could be displaced by climate-related factors by 2050. Despite these pressing issues, empirical research linking climate change and migration in Central Asia remains scarce. This seminar will examine the intersections of climate change and migration through a review of the existing literature and present new evidence from nationally representative household survey data for the Kyrgyz Republic (2019–2022). The findings shed light on how climate stressors influence migration decisions andhighlight areas for future research in the region.